Bayesian Modelling of Family Planning Discontinuation under Socioeconomic and Environmental Uncertainty in Rural Communities in South East Nigeria

Authors

  • Emmanuel M. Ikegwu
    Department of Statistics, Yaba College of Technology, Yaba, Lagos State, Nigeria
  • Gbenga B. Karokatose
    Department of Statistics, Yaba College of Technology, Yaba, Lagos State, Nigeria
  • Muhammad A. Idris
    Department of Statistics, Yaba College of Technology, Yaba, Lagos State, Nigeria

Keywords:

Family planning discontinuation , Hierarchical Bayesian modelling , Reproductive health , Environmental uncertainty , Stochastic demographic modelling

Abstract

Despite increasing contraceptive awareness, discontinuation rates continue to contribute to unintended pregnancies, maternal health risks, and population pressure. This study investigated the determinants of family planning discontinuation among women of reproductive age in South-East Nigeria using a hierarchical Bayesian Stochastic modelling framework. The study utilised the IRPGS dataset collected from the five states of South-East Nigeria, comprising household-level reproductive-health, socioeconomic, migration, healthcare accessibility, and environmental variables. A hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression model was employed to estimate the probability of contraceptive discontinuation while accounting for latent state-level heterogeneity. Fixed effects included age, healthcare accessibility, food price instability, flood exposure, migration experience, drought exposure, educational attainment, and family planning knowledge, while state-level random effects captured contextual variability. Posterior estimation, convergence diagnostics, sensitivity analysis and predictive information criteria,  were used for model validation. The findings revealed that environmental shocks significantly influenced contraceptive discontinuation behaviour. Drought exposure substantially increased discontinuation risk, while flood exposure also exhibited a positive association with discontinuation. Migration experience emerged as a major protective factor, significantly reducing discontinuation probability. Increased travel time to healthcare facilities slightly elevated discontinuation risk. State-level random effects indicated substantial geographic heterogeneity, with Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo States exhibiting higher latent discontinuation vulnerability compared with Abia and Anambra States. Convergence diagnostics showed satisfactory posterior convergence with Gelman-Rubin statistics below 1.1, while sensitivity analysis confirmed robustness of posterior estimates. The study concludes that family planning discontinuation in South-East Nigeria is shaped by complex interactions among environmental uncertainty, healthcare accessibility, migration dynamics, and latent geographic factors.

Dimensions

Adedini, S. A., Ntoimo, L. F., & Alex-Ojei, C. A. (2023). Sub-national Analysis of Contraceptive Discontinuation among Women in Nigeria: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Survey. Rockville, Maryland, USA: ICF.

Agbana, R. D., Michael, T. O., & Ojo, T. F. (2023). Family planning method discontinuation among Nigerian women: Evidence from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2018. Journal of Taibah University Medical Sciences, 18(1), 117–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtumed.2022.08.003

Alaba, O. O. (2015). Discontinuity of Family Planning in Nigeria: A Geo-Additive Model Approach. West African Journal of Industry and Academic Research, 14(1), 61 - 70.

Aladekomo, O. A., & Fagbamigbe, A. F. (2025). Performance of Bayesian structured additive regression and logistic models in assessing factors associated with modern contraceptive use among ever-in-union women in Nigeria. BMC Women’s Health, 25(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-025-04059-6

Alyafei, A., & Carr, R. E. (2024). The Health Belief Model of Behaviour Change. National Library of Medicine; StatPearls Publishing. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK606120/

Anyatonwu, O. P., Nwoku, K. A., Jonsson, H., & Namatovu, F. (2023). The determinants of postpartum contraceptive use in Nigeria. Frontiers in Global Women’s Health, 4, 1284614. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgwh.2023.1284614

Asifat, T. O., Bisiriyu, O. L., & Ogunetimoju, A. M. (2026). Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Reported Terminated Pregnancy Across Nigerian States (2013-2024). MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.16.26346435

Bass, L. E., & Okuwa, O. A. (2026). Women’s decision-making power and contraceptive use in Nigeria. International Sociology, 41(3). https://doi.org/10.1177/02685809261418620

Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Ganatra, B., Moller, A.-B., Tuncalp, O., Beavin, C., . . . Alkema, L. (2020). Global estimation of unintended pregnancy and abortion using a Bayesian hierarchical random walk model. arXiv. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2007.09246

Bolarinwa, O. A., Tessema, Z. T., Frimpong, J. B., Seidu, A.-A., & Ahinkorah, B. O. (2021). Spatial distribution and factors associated with modern contraceptive use among women of reproductive age in Nigeria: A multilevel analysis. PLOS ONE, 16(12), e0258844. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258844

Cardona, C., OlaOlorun, F. M., Omulabi, E., Gichangi, P., Thiogo, M., Tsui, A., & Anglewicz, P. (2022). The relationship between client dissatisfaction and contraceptive discontinuation among urban family planning clients in three sub-Saharan African countries. PLOS ONE, 17(8), e0271911. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271911

Chavan, R., Joshi, S., Kumar, R., & Barde, S. (2025). Barriers beyond biology: The socioeconomic and cultural determinants of infertility treatment-seeking behaviour – A systematic review. Journal of Education and Health Promotion, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.4103/jehp.jehp_1262_25

Chen, Z., Liu, D., Marrero, W. J., Jacobson, N. C., & Thesen, T. (2026). A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Predictive Analytics of Depression Severity in Medical Students. Healthcare Analytics, 9, 100453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.health.2026.100453

FP2030. (2024). FP2030 Indicator Summary Sheet: 2024 Measurement Report Modern Contraceptive Use and Need Total users of modern methods of contraception* Modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCP) Total users of modern methods of contraception Modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCP) Total users of modern methods of contraception Impacts of Modern Contraceptive Use among All Women. https://www.fp2030.org/app/uploads/2023/04/Nigeria-2024-Indicator-Summary-Sheet.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Gunn, E. (2024, August 15). Barriers to Family Planning for Women in West Africa. Ballard Brief. https://ballardbrief.byu.edu/issue-briefs/barriers-to-family-planning-for-women-in-west-africa

Kasso, T., & Abam, D. S. (2023). A Qualitative Analysis of Contraceptive Use and Barriers to Uptake among Antenatal Clinic Attendees at a Tertiary Hospital in Port Harcourt, Southern Nigeria. Asian Research Journal of Gynaecology and Obstetrics, 6(1), 313–322. https://journalarjgo.com/index.php/ARJGO/article/view/202

Khan, A., Qureshi, M., Daniyal, M., & Tawiah, K. (2022). Impact of Sociocultural Factors on Contraceptive Use: A Case Study of Pakistan. BioMed Research International, 2022, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2939166

Kiros, G. H. (2013). Bayesian Regression Analysis of Correlates of Modern Contraceptive Method Usage: A Case Study in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. 59th ISI World Statistics Congress, 25 - 30 August (pp. 5462 - 5467). Hong Kong: ISI World Statistics Congress.

Kogei, D. K., Wanjoya, A., Chelule, J., & Onyango, L. (2023). Bayesian Binary Quantile Regression for Modelling Injectable Contraceptive Uptake Among Childbearing Women in Kenya. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 12(5). https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20231205.12

Kupoluyi, J. A., Solanke, B. L., Adetutu, O. M., & Abe, J. O. (2023). Prevalence and associated factors of modern contraceptive discontinuation among sexually active married women in Nigeria. Contraception and Reproductive Medicine, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40834-022-00205-9

Mandal, M., Calhoun, L. M., McGuire, C., & Speizer, I. S. (2022). Using structural equation modelling to examine the influence of family planning social norms on modern contraceptive use in Nigeria. Frontiers in Sociology, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2022.866254

Matera, C., Dommermuth, L., Bacci, S., Bertaccini, B., Minello, A., & Vignoli, D. (2022). Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-022-09872-x

Ratner, D., Kolaczko, J. G., Jeffers, K., Lambers, F., Orahovats, A., Wait, T., Stevanovic, O., & Genuario, J. (2022). Three-Dimensional Analysis Versus Two-Dimensional Slice-Based Analysis of CT for Measuring Femoral Torsion and Its Correlation to Passive Hip Range of Motion. Cureus, 14(9). https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.29554

Razzaghi, A., Salari, S., Raesi, R., Hushmandi, K., & Daneshi, S. (2026). Factors Influencing Childbearing Intentions in the Context of Declining Global Fertility Rates: A Scoping Review. The Open Public Health Journal, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.2174/0118749445435035260128101012

Wegbom, A. I., Raimi, O., & Fagbamigbe, A. F. (2026). Spatial Analysis of the Relationship between Contraceptive Use and Under-Five Mortality in Nigeria. African Journal of Biology and Medical Research, 9(1), 71 - 92. doi:10.52589/AJBMR-VD8JAD8F.

Woldeamanuel, B. T., Gessese, G. T., Demie, T. G., Handebo, S., & Biratu, T. D. (2023). Women’s education, contraception use, and high-risk fertility behaviour: A cross-sectional analysis of the demographic and health survey in Ethiopia. Frontiers in Global Women’s Health, 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgwh.2023.1071461

Wu, S. M., & Joy, B. (2023). Bayesian estimation methods for survey data with potential applications to health disparities research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1633

cover

Published

2026-07-30

How to Cite

Bayesian Modelling of Family Planning Discontinuation under Socioeconomic and Environmental Uncertainty in Rural Communities in South East Nigeria. (2026). Lafia Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research, 4(2), 98-107. https://doi.org/10.62050/ljsir2026.v4n2.878

Issue

Volume 4, Issue 2 (October, 2026), Lafia Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research (LJSIR) [IN PROGRESS]

Section

Life Sciences
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2026 Emmanuel M. Ikegwu, Gbenga B. Karokatose, Muhammad A. Idris (Author)

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Bayesian Modelling of Family Planning Discontinuation under Socioeconomic and Environmental Uncertainty in Rural Communities in South East Nigeria. (2026). Lafia Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research, 4(2), 98-107. https://doi.org/10.62050/ljsir2026.v4n2.878

Similar Articles

31-40 of 53

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.